Natural gas Class 8 truck retail sales in the
US and Canada improved in May, after getting off to a slow start earlier in the
year, according to a recent report from ACT Research.
This is attributed
to a high number of natural gas (NG) vehicle repeat sales, as well as purchases
by transit bus and refuse truck operators. But will it continue for the rest of
the year?
However, the continuing low cost of diesel is
making the return on investment (ROI) for adopting natural gas less
lucrative for fleets not yet invested in NG-fuelled vehicles.
“With the fuel price differential continuing
to narrow, the ROI to convert from diesel to natural gas is moving in the wrong
direction: payback periods remain lengthy,” notes Ken Vieth, ACT’s senior
partner. He continued,
“This doesn’t mean the adoption of NG fuel
has stopped or that there are no new developments supporting a future uptick in
NG truck orders.” Vieth adds, “Even so, despite a 48 per cent month-on-month uptick in May,
year-to-date volumes are 24 per cent below 2015’s level and year-over-year
sales are down 21 per cent.
According to Vieth, NG infrastructure
continues to be built, albeit at targeted locations and at a slowing pace.
Existing NG equipment users remain committed to its long-term viability and
emission benefits, he adds optimistically.
Although there are examples of how equipment
research and development efforts continue to advance the market, ACT sees only
modest, single-digit growth for NG adoption as a transportation fuel in the US over the next few years.
It is worth noting that the only truck
engines currently available in the US able to meet proposed GHG and NOx proposals,
are NG engines, namely the spark-ignited 8.9- and 11.9-litre Cummins-Westport
ISL and ISX natural gas units.
Considerably more expensive to purchase than
the diesel engines from which they are derived, there is also concern about NG
engines’ higher maintenance costs. So the NG powertrain not only faces higher
fuel costs, but higher first-cost and higher lifetime costs.
Even so, two Californian air quality
monitoring groups in a collective petition to the US Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) are pushing for the federal NOx emission limit of 0.2gm per bhp-h
for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, in force since January 2010, to be reduced
by no less than 90 per cent to a near-extreme level of only 0.02gm.
What is worse, from truck diesel engine
manufacturers’ viewpoints, is their request of a proposal embracing the 0.02gm
limit be in place by mid-2017 followed a final ruling by 31 December 31 2017,
with the EPA mandate taking effect in January 2022.
If these California-based ideas are taken on
board it would seem they could play into the hands of those companies building
NG engines and associated equipment, stymying diesel engine growth.
On the other hand, the relatively meagre network
of NG refuelling points across the US and Canada would indeed struggle to support the surge in NG vehicle numbers that would be spurred on by the format of any new EPA emissions
proposals.
For their part, diesel engine makers are
likely to pitch in with the quip that a call for such stringent legislation
within just a four-year timeframe is ‘unrealistic’ to say the least.
It will be interesting to see exactly what
those new January 2022 ‘regs’ turn out to be in reality – and to see if the
four-year moratorium is stretched further to appease diesel engine makers.
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